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Analytics

Possession Value Models — overview

Possession Value Models

A Ballity concept guide — learn what it is, then spot it live.

Possession Value Models are advanced analytical tools that assign a numerical value to every action on the pitch based on how much it increases or decreases a team's probability of scoring or conceding a goal.
Instead of just counting passes, these models evaluate the quality and impact of each action, showing which ones truly move a team closer to scoring.
Possession Value Models — shape
Top teams leverage these models to identify players who consistently make high-impact contributions, assess the effectiveness of their tactical schemes, and pinpoint key areas for improvement in both attack and defense.

Two Ways to See It

Data Lens

From a data perspective, these models process thousands of actions per match, quantifying how each touch, pass, dribble, or tackle statistically alters the team's win probability or Expected Goals (xG) chain. A forward pass that breaks two lines of defense into a dangerous area would show a significant positive value, even if it doesn't immediately lead to a shot.

Scout Lens

A scout often assesses a player's 'value' through qualitative observation, recognizing the intelligent decision-making and technical execution of a pass that unlocks a defense or a tackle that prevents a dangerous counter, feeling the impact on the game's momentum rather than seeing a numerical score.

Many teams across modern football, especially analytically-driven clubs like Liverpool, Manchester City, Brentford, Brighton.
You can observe the outcome of high-value actions by noticing passes or carries that swiftly create dangerous attacking positions or alleviate significant defensive pressure.

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